The illusion of a bad beat.

The Donkey hit his runner gutshot and beat me.  Oh poor me.  Life sucks.  Why does the bad player always beat me?  Whaaaa.  Whaaa.

MP1 ($7.45)
Hero (MP2) ($10.30)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 10, 10
1 fold, MP1 calls $0.10, Hero bets $0.50, 4 folds, MP1 calls $0.40
Flop: ($1.15) 6, 8, 2 (2 players)
MP1 bets $0.10, Hero raises to $0.70, MP1 calls $0.60
Turn: ($2.55) 4 (2 players)
MP1 bets $0.40, Hero raises to $7.80, MP1 calls $5.85 (All-In)
River: ($15.05) 3 (2 players, 1 all-in)
Total pot: $15.05 | Rake: $0.70
Results:
MP1 had 5, A (straight, six high).
Hero mucked 10, 10 (one pair, tens).
Outcome: MP1 won $14.35

There it is, the latest boring bad beat post. Poor unlucky xylinx.

$%#!% how does he make that call?

Funny thing is, he had 40% equity. His price works out. It wasn't really a bad call.  And I could have done better if I played my cards better against his actual hand, but my play was really pretty reasonable given his range.

I played 60 hands with this guy.  I was playing 23/18, I was surprised to learn. I felt like I was playing tight, but I actually wasn't very tight at all. I had also 3-bet 9% of the time which is a little frisky.

My soap opera was that this guy was a calling station. Every time I raised, he called or raised me. Except the first hand I played, where I 3-bet his first min raise. The FIRST time I played a pot, I three bet him and he folded. Hasn't folded to me since, but I've folded to him several times. It appeared to be the balls thing.

His stats were 34/23/5. HM says he did call at a "very high" rate. Granted, he was making some really weak bets, so he wasn't really this aggressive. He was opening for min-bets a lot. Tended to probe small.

I made the move figuring he would call with an 8. That's what I thought. I was rooting for a call. Honest. I just figured this guy gave me no respect for some reason. I'm playing tight, he always plays with me. He must be one of those guys that think they're always being bluffed.

But he wasn't that at all. Against this guy, I turned my great hand into a bluff. He is never calling that bet without a very strong hand. No way. And I wasn't playing tight at all. So he was right to consider bluffs a distinct possibility.

Now, a lot of money was going in on the turn no matter the line. I don't think the river has all that much action, as we both fear a raise. So, there was significant, but not a huge amount of money difference, had I chosen a different line - as the cards lie.

Let's look at the numbers. There was 3.35 in the pot, he had to call 5.85 to win 14.35. So he was getting 2.5:1. What was my range? Well, he knows I might have a flush, but unlikely. Maybe he puts me on a naked over pair. He hopes I have a flush draw. He has 12 outs for sure, and 15 in nice spots. So he is a 2:1 dog. It's a good call.

How did I do? I have ton of equity. What is his range? Well, that one is tough. He bet, but that doesn't mean anything. His range is wide open. He could have a flush which would suck. He could have a gutshot which is folding. Otherwise he could have 2 pair. He could have an 8. Or a set. He doesn't have an overpair to my tens. And he will be bluffing a pretty high percentage. All the 2 pair and sets have worst flush draws. Against a set, I still have 9 outs. Two pair, I have 11 outs. Since I eliminated the overpairs, I must either have the best hand or the best draw. Two way hands are very cool.

So if he has an 8, I am a monster fav. Otherwise, I am never in great shape if he calls. I have lots of fold equity. but so does a normal raise. Plus, a raise might get an 8 to call which is great for me. Say I raise to 2.50. He calls. Pot is now 8.35 and he catches his straight. How much can he love it? His stack is now 3.75. I think he would try another blocker bet, maybe 1.00. I just call. So 2.75 less goes into the pot as the cards fell.

My problem with a normal line is his stack size. If he calls 2.50 (and my read was he would), he is left with 3.75. And the pot will be 8.35. Awkward. It'll be hard to fold if he pushes. That leaves a passive line, which seems just uber-weak with my monster. He still stacks me if a spade comes. It's a tough spot.

The push has some meta-game advantages. It looks just plain reckless. I'll get some free cards and passive play as a result. It will look like I shoved $8 into a $3 pot. Now, I don't look at it that way. I just see the 2.75 I might save. But I mean, I look dangerous. "To play this maniac, I'm committing my stack... Nah, jacks are just too weak." lol

Let's say I get 90% folds allin, and since I am usually not against the worst case scenario, let's give me an extra 10% win percentage for some weak "you can't bluff me" hands (like my read suggested was possible) and bad calls with naked draws.

EV = FE * 3.35 + 14.35*Fw - 14.35*Fl

= 0.9*3.35 + 14.35(60+10) 14.35 (40 - 10)

= 3 + 10 - 4.3 = 8.70 - My equity.

14.35 - 8.70 = 5.65 - His equity.

8.70 - 5.65 = 3.05 - My advantage.

Flush over flush is worth 2.75 * .20 = .66.  Straight is worth 1.00 * 0.9 = 9 cents.

So 3.05 - (2.75 + .75) =  -0.50  +/-

So my play loses me 5 BBs every time I make it.  That's just a cbet that gets raised!  Not a very big mistake.  So my play was not very bad either.  Not ideal, but not terrible.  And since these situations are so rare, even if my play really sucks, it won't cost me those 5BB very often.  I guess I still like the push.   But only when I am sure his range is lacking big pairs.

The illusion of a bad beat.  The illusion of bad play.  Actually, it's just kinda a cooler and our decisions and the draw don't really matter all that much.  Certainly not enough to train yourself to play too cautiously with hands of this type, which really costs us a lot of missed equity!  "Embrace volatility" is actually good advice, even in this gross case.  As someone that tends to choose safety over thin edges, this hand should not make me more likely to be cautious.  

So no need to tilt about bad beats. No reason to obsess about bad play. It's just poker.

I played 71 hands and lost 53 BBs, and quit because I was feeling tilty. Good boy, Xylinx. I won 3 big pots, lost one other 20BB pot, all pretty routine.

The really cool thing about losing this hand is: had I won, I just would have caulked it up to expert play. I never would have discovered this rather cool fact: It just doesn't matter.