How to Bust out of a Tournament

Poker has been hard over the last week.  Running really bad.

I played 300 hands or so, and won 150BBs.  

To win money, I gotta do stuff like bluff someone off pocket Queens.  ;)

PokerStars Game #26113993913:  Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10) - 2009/03/18 21:58:28 ET

Table 'Lemaitre II' 6-max Seat #2 is the button

Seat 1: zethdconan ($18.90 in chips) 

Seat 2: nickskid ($11.40 in chips) 

Seat 3: MrDonktard2u ($11.10 in chips) 

Seat 4: d4ny0 ($1.55 in chips) 

Seat 5: Boilers425 ($0.75 in chips) 

Seat 6: Xylinx ($14.80 in chips) 

MrDonktard2u: posts small blind $0.05

d4ny0: posts big blind $0.10

*** HOLE CARDS ***

Dealt to Xylinx [Jh Jd]

Boilers425: calls $0.10

Xylinx: raises $0.30 to $0.40

zethdconan: raises $0.80 to $1.20

nickskid: folds 

MrDonktard2u: folds 

d4ny0: folds 

Boilers425: folds 

Xylinx: calls $0.80

*** FLOP *** [3c 3s 7c]

Xylinx: checks 

zethdconan: bets $1.70

Xylinx: raises $2.30 to $4

zethdconan: calls $2.30

*** TURN *** [3c 3s 7c] [Ad]

Xylinx: bets $4.20

zethdconan: folds 

Uncalled bet ($4.20) returned to Xylinx

Xylinx collected $10.15 from pot

*** SUMMARY ***

Total pot $10.65 | Rake $0.50 

Board [3c 3s 7c Ad]

Seat 1: zethdconan folded on the Turn

Seat 2: nickskid (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Seat 3: MrDonktard2u (small blind) folded before Flop

Seat 4: d4ny0 (big blind) folded before Flop

Seat 5: Boilers425 folded before Flop

Seat 6: Xylinx collected ($10.15)

I just seem to run bad for such long periods.  Probabily only me. ;)

So back to deep tournament strategy.

Fold Equity is the Nuts, but Better

Just watch it happen, the next tournament you play.  Most people go broke in one of three ways.  They either catch the bad side of a cold deck, they bluff off their stack, or they make terrible bets with decent hands, but with no fold equity.  So how do we not do those things, and instead, survive to get deep?

1)  Cold decks may be unavoidable, but by trying to play smaller pots we are in better shape than the "all-in baby" crowd.  Try to get the big bets in later in the hand as much as possible.

2) Well let's just not bluff all-in at all on the first day.  Bluff smaller on early streets, and give up if you seem to be against something.

3)  So this one is the big one.  We cannot control 1) Luck and we can control 2) idiocy easily.  But I see this mistake over and over again in every tourney.  Making bets with good hands, but no fold equity is a bad play.  We lose much of our edge.  It is just gambling.    The earlier it is done in the hand, the bigger mistake it is.

If you re-raise and the effective raise isn't much more than the pot, you are laying 2:1 odds.  You are seldom a 2:1 favorite, on average, against a reasonable range of hands your opponents could hold.  So this bet prices them in, and will fold only complete bluffs  (even some of those will call).  

Be sure to calculate the pot correctly, as you must add in your call of the raise first.

Example:

The pot is 500 on the flop.  The SB with 1500 back bets $400.  You have top pair, good kicker.

So the pot is now 500 + 400 + 400 (your call) = 1300, and your opponent has 1100 left.  Raise only if you want a call.  You do not want a call if his stack is 1/3 of yours or more.  So with less than 4500 chips, this is a fold  (above that, maybe we can afford to gamble).

Your hand against his range is not very far ahead with 2 cards to come.  You could be beat, and if you are ahead, he has outs.  If we assume that we are 60% favorite on average, this small edge is well compensated for by the pot odds.  This small edge is nothing compared to making raises that have fold equity.  Give it up, live to find spots where your edge is stronger.

Consider when we are the short stack.  Then we just need to know our M.  If our M is 5 or less, we want to open raise allin.  Never call raises or reraise with that stack without monsters.  Here's why.

Example:  

Blinds 100/200 ante 25: initial pot = 525

Our stack is 2600 (M=5)  We hold 88.

EP opens for 600.  The pot is 525 + 600 + 600 = 1725.  Our stack is 2000.  We have no fold equity against a decent stack.  It would be best to wait for a better spot.  Double our stack, and it becomes an easy push, because the sum of our fold equity, plus the chance we win the pot if he calls is very positive.  Without any fold equity, it is really a coin-flip against a reasonable range of hands.  Look at that - all of our value in the raise is pretty much the fold equity!

Don't do it.  Don't force your opponent to call you.  Don't give up half the value of your raise.  Never re-raise allin for about the pot.

Tilt big time

Well, blew off 308 bbs in 79 hands.  stats were 30/20/1 at six-max tables.

I lost one sick bad beat, but played pretty bad in a bunch of other hands.  Certainly the cards we not going my way at all, but I just kept pushing small edges, and was consistantly wrong.  Not drunken tilt.  Just "can't win a pot" tilt.

-100 get it in with the nuts against KK that rivered the flush.

-45  bluffed all his chips on a 3 barrel bluff against a station with top pair jacks, no kicker.  I so knew better.

-38  my sixes vs his eights on a 56KKQ board.  I knew he didn't have much, but he had enough.

-33  my top pair queens, vs A4 for 2 pair, on a 4QT flop, turn ace.

-21  called down middle pair sixes into a passive 2 pair.

-14  pocket sixes against a 20bb shorty.

Not a single win over 3 bbs.

lost 14 pots, won the blinds 11 times.  I did not win even the blinds until hand 30.

Brutal.

Won 50 bbs back at the 9max tables.  For some reason, my aces didn't get drawn out on.  Pokerstars is fixed.

Deep Stack Tournaments

As we approach time for WSOP 2009, I thought we might want to talk a bit about strategy for playing these games.  So I thought I would throw out some ideas.  I am not claiming to be an expert, but I think I have a pretty flawless record on cashing in these kinds of tourney structures, and a lot of final tables to boot, so I am not a complete imbecile.

Tight is Right.

These tourneys are multi-day affairs.  You are very deep and the blinds raise slowly.  There is a ton of play.  So the goal for day one is absolutely to survive, and I see no reason why anyone should have to bust the first day.  If you can double up twice in 10 hours of poker, you will be strong going into day 2.  That's all you need, 2 good spots in 10 hours of play.  So you can, and should, be very selective.

You do not want to play for your stack with small edges.  By a small edge, I mean having KK against QQ preflop.  How can I say that?  Well, in this best of all possible preflop outcomes, you are ONLY a 4:1 favorite.  

Here's a table from "Little Green Book".  It shows the chance of survival, when getting allin as a 4:1 favorite, per trial.

1-  81.26%

2-  66.02%

3-  53.65%

4-  43.59%

5-  35.42%

6-  28.78%

7-  23.39%

In other words, if you play master poker and get it in 4 times when you have your opponent crushed, you are a small luckbox to win all 4!   Coin flips, 60/40's allins on day one are just silly.  Don't do it.

So, what? Fold kings preflop?  Of course not.  Just try to keep the pot reasonable.  You want to raise, both for value and to get heads up.  But play the hand post flop if possible, and play carefully.  In the fast tourneys we usually play, this logic would be madness, but with 2 hour blinds and deep stacks, it is simply correct - and you have a real edge over opponents that don't understand this.

So am I suggesting just playing super weak-tight?  Well, kinda, but only in pots that are looking to get big and are showdown bound.  Pre-flop and on the flop, the style doesn't really matter that much.  LAG and TAG are both profitable and just fine.  Try to win small pots with appropriate aggression, or small showdown pots -- unless you have something pretty close to the nuts.  I want to be a BIG favorite against my opponents range of value hands when I call off my stack.  Save the small edges for when losing the pot will not cripple you -- against short stacks.

Is this exploitable.  You bet!  But they have to risk a lot to take advantage, and you just are not playing that many pots.  And, of course your tight image is something you can exploit to induce bluffs, and to bluff yourself, so it works out.    

This is the most important idea, and the mindset required to go deep in these tourneys.  It is a boring, frustrating, tiring and often humilating way to play, but it is this disipline which will give you a chance to play later when the blinds are big and you have enough chips.   This is how you earn the right to play fun, late game tournament poker.

Please comment.  To be continued.

-27BB 143 hands 23/15/2.8  Playing well again.

-20 AQs vs AA - shortstack 3 bet me.  That's a call, I think.  Folding AJo.

-16 Check called down min bets with mid pair, against a flopped 2 pair (!)  Optional for sure.

+22 straight vs flopped set.  He called me names, and still wouldn't fight back.  (17/6 player)

won 17, lost 6 small pots.  My AA,AA and KK hands won the blinds, of course.

Seems to me like the games have changed a bit.  These used to be very aggressive stakes.  Now the short stackers have invaded, and you see a lot of limping and min betting.  I think it is more the size of my bets and my post flop relentlessness which is keeping them out of my pots.  They just want to see small pots shown down a lot, I guess.  So how do I adjust?

If I stop betting so much, I price them into their weak draws.  I make them accidentally play correctly.  I think I need to keep betting, really.

I guess I need to call more.  I let them price me into my weak draws, and just hope to win a big pot when I hit.  Is that poker?

Played some 6-max.

+76 over 30 hands.  30/23/6.5  - I did get a couple of hands.

Lot's more interesting.  Maybe focus on 6max a bit more.  They are adapting much quicker.  

+56 - obviously had him outkicked with my AJ on a 8AQA7 board.  He stacked off with A6.

Lots of loose calls!  

Dulldrums

I haven't been playing particularly well the last couple of days.  I am booking small wins, playing short sessions.  I am playing rather tight and predictable.  I have stopped drinking, which is likely why, no liquid courage.

Over the last fews days I played 7 short sessions:

+32BBs  42 hands 19/14/3

+70BBs  81 hands 22/14/2.2

-11BBs   71 hands 15/9/2.2

-26BBs  16 hands 18/6

+23BBs  53 hands 11/7.5/10

+34BBs  41 hands 17/12/8

+7BBs    51 hands 10/8/4.0

I wish I could combine stats in HM.  

I just don't get any action, which is why all the small wins.  They just won't call my turn bets.  That means I am too tight.  It will be interesting to see if I can get that maniac attitude without chemicals.

Try out Neo-Cube - look on you tube!  Pretty cool toy!

+32 over 42 hands.  19/14/4.  Haven't been wanting to play much lately.  

Watching WSOPE - very nice broadcast.  Also watching dueces cracked videos.

Here's the hand that bothered me.

Seat 3: shaneor ($11.70 in chips) 

Seat 8: Xylinx ($12.80 in chips) 

tugjd: posts small blind $0.05

shaneor: posts big blind $0.10

*** HOLE CARDS ***

Dealt to Xylinx [7d Qh]

SuprFloydATL: folds 

bigplay6666: folds 

kikaz1976: folds 

glaugh: folds 

Xylinx: raises $0.30 to $0.40

fagarbal: folds 

tugjd: folds 

shaneor: calls $0.30

*** FLOP *** [Tc Kd Ks]

shaneor: checks 

Xylinx: bets $0.60

shaneor: raises $0.60 to $1.20

Xylinx: folds 

Uncalled bet ($0.60) returned to shaneor

shaneor collected $1.95 from pot

shaneor is sitting out

shaneor: doesn't show hand 

*** SUMMARY ***

Total pot $2.05 | Rake $0.10 

I think this is a terrible play on his part.  And the last thing I should have done is fold.  I knew it at the time, but I just didn't have enough experience with him to be sure he knew what he was doing.  If I thought he had some poker experience, I would have played this hand and won it.

Here's the problem with his play.  First off, notice I am playing pretty tight.  I am the tightest active player at the table.   His stats were a fishy 32/5/2 but only over 21 hands.  So what is my range, raising from the cutoff?   Well, it will be hands that are all over this board, like AK, KQ, AQ and lots of pairs which will also like this board.

What is his range when check-raising this flop?  There's the problem, there is no reasonable hand he does this for value with.  Especially a min-raise.  Made hands will want to protect against the very likely chance I have a draw.  If he has a King, why would he check-raise?  A ten or a smaller pocket pair wouldn't check-raise either.  Both his monsters and his made hands are going to check-call.  Please tell me what hand he could have, I can see nothing.  Of course, a terrified king makes sense for a new player, but otherwise, his line makes no sense.

His play will tend to fold only my bluffs, hands he probabily beats already.  Even a bluff is better off check-calling the flop.  Had he called, I would have given up at the first possible occasion.  Of course, I did happen to have one of my occassional stone bluffs, so I did fold.  But I shouldn't have, and usually wouldn't.  I would usually put him on a bluff, and take it away from him.

Look how scary it is if I call his check-raise.  All I have to do is bet or raise one more time, and he is very likely folding without pretty close to the nuts.  No need for me to make some wild 3-bet here.  A call shows much more strength.

The merit to my play is that I want weak players to think they can bluff me at will.  I want them to think I cannot read hands, so the next time they back themselves into a corner, they will try to bet their way out, and I can win a big pot.  Of course, this guy high-tailed it right after this hand, didn't even play out his free hands for the orbit.  Oh, well.  He verified my read, I think.

28/15/3  -90bbs  over 71 hands.

J7 vs JT - a bit of a cooler. -57

K5 vs KJ - a tossup.   -33

AJ vs AK - Got away cheap. -22

Only 1 winner over 10.

QQ vs ??  +21  2 callers to my three-bet.  Bet big on the flop, into a drawy board.

Mostly not much going on.

Tilted, me thinks, towards the end, maybe.  Not spew, just got held over a bit.

My play early was good, just very weak tables, nobody would play with me.

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Xylinx [Js 7h]
blag19 has timed out
blag19: folds
blag19 is sitting out
ibe187: folds
PecanGrower: calls $0.10
KingsoverQ's: folds
stoxpeon: folds
blag19 has returned
Xylinx: raises $0.40 to $0.50
jsizzle77: folds
moonstorm1: folds
PecanGrower: calls $0.40
*** FLOP *** [2s Tc 7d]
PecanGrower: checks
Xylinx: bets $0.60
PecanGrower: calls $0.60
*** TURN *** [2s Tc 7d] [Jc]
PecanGrower: checks
Xylinx: bets $1.80
PecanGrower: calls $1.80
*** RIVER *** [2s Tc 7d Jc] [8s]
PecanGrower: bets $2.85
Xylinx: calls $2.85
*** SHOW DOWN ***
PecanGrower: shows [Th Jh] (two pair, Jacks and Tens)
Xylinx: mucks hand
PecanGrower collected $11.10 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $11.65 | Rake $0.55
Board [2s Tc 7d Jc 8s]
Seat 2: jsizzle77 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: moonstorm1 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: blag19 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: ibe187 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: PecanGrower showed [Th Jh] and won ($11.10) with two pair, Jacks and Tens
Seat 7: KingsoverQ's folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: stoxpeon folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: Xylinx (button) mucked [Js 7h]

Should have just folded the river.  Kinda a cooler, but bad play too.  Almost tossed it.  Note, his river bet was not really a value bet.  More a blocker, really.  He was a good player though.  He beat me a pot just before this.

Seat 1: Xylinx ($11.05 in chips) 

Seat 5: CDROM8 ($11.65 in chips) 

*** HOLE CARDS ***

Dealt to Xylinx [Kc 5c]

koster00008: folds 

Riverside Dr: folds 

Xylinx: raises $0.30 to $0.40

Fartovii: folds 

CaptainCarp: folds 

blazkuh: folds 

CDROM8: calls $0.35

jimmychauv: folds 

*** FLOP *** [4d Ks 9h]

CDROM8: bets $0.20

Xylinx: raises $0.70 to $0.90

CDROM8: calls $0.70

*** TURN *** [4d Ks 9h] [8s]

CDROM8: bets $0.80

Xylinx: calls $0.80

*** RIVER *** [4d Ks 9h 8s] [8d]

CDROM8: bets $1.50

Xylinx: calls $1.50

*** SHOW DOWN ***

CDROM8: shows [Kh Js] (two pair, Kings and Eights)

Xylinx: mucks hand 

CDROM8 collected $6.95 from pot

*** SUMMARY ***

Total pot $7.30 | Rake $0.35 

Board [4d Ks 9h 8s 8d]

Seat 1: Xylinx mucked [Kc 5c]

Seat 2: Fartovii folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Seat 3: CaptainCarp folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Seat 4: blazkuh (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Seat 5: CDROM8 (small blind) showed [Kh Js] and won ($6.95) with two pair, Kings and Eights

Seat 6: jimmychauv (big blind) folded before Flop

Seat 7: koster00008 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Seat 8: Riverside Dr folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Personally, I think he played it poorly.  He was bluffing on the river, I had a dandy bluff catcher.  What his bluff could fold that he couldn't beat is unclear to me.  KQ, maybe...  AK is not folding.  I think this is a call most of the time.   If it was a value bet, well...  It's an interesting play.  He left right after the hand.

The good news is I quit playing.  Not my night, maybe.  I'm sure I am not on top of my game.

My thought for today.  Gavin kinda blew it on wpt.  His HU gameplay would have worked.  Just don't try to bluff this guy!  presto baby, all in!  lol

Too bad, really.  He was playing soooo good.  That call against Kathy was pretty sick.  He was wrong, kinda.  Not a big favorite, but still, he read Kathy dead on.

Haven't been playing much.  Over the last 2 days I played 200 hands for +83 bbs.  I'm up a whole $40 over the last week. Almost $3 per hour!  lol

It is very hard to keep my stats much below 30/20.  I conscienciously try, but they keep tossing up these big fat pumpkins for me to whack at.  Haven't played anyone good lately, so I win every pot, but never get much action.

Here's a train wreck.

COTTONTOP45: posts small blind $0.05

lucasong: is sitting out 

Xylinx: posts big blind $0.10

*** HOLE CARDS ***

Dealt to Xylinx [Qs Qh]

SennaNo1: folds 

milano1987: folds 

2AceOfSpades: folds 

Noplolis: folds 

patjekok: calls $0.10

3day_ growth: folds 

COTTONTOP45: raises $0.30 to $0.40

Xylinx: calls $0.30

patjekok: calls $0.30

*** FLOP *** [7d 7c Kc]

COTTONTOP45: checks 

Xylinx: checks 

patjekok: bets $0.30

COTTONTOP45: calls $0.30

Xylinx: calls $0.30

*** TURN *** [7d 7c Kc] [Tc]

COTTONTOP45: checks 

Xylinx: checks 

patjekok: bets $1.50

COTTONTOP45: folds 

Xylinx: calls $1.50

*** RIVER *** [7d 7c Kc Tc] [6c]

Xylinx: bets $2.30

patjekok: folds 

Uncalled bet ($2.30) returned to Xylinx

Xylinx collected $4.85 from pot

Xylinx: doesn't show hand 

How could I play these cards this way?  Well, I had my reasons, believe it or not.

I'd posted 2 behind the dealer, just missed clicking the box off.  I had AK that hand, came in firing and folded them out.  Posting in middle position is the notorious sign of a fast player.  I happened to have a hand, but they don't know that.

This hand was 2 hands later, my third hand at the table.  I thought if I raised, they might fold, but then they will be calling me light.  First impressions last.  Frankly, they should be calling, or better, raising me light - but it would be best to keep that a secret for a while.   Let's see if we can  show them a surprisingly good hand.  I'm ok with a 3-way with these cards.

I hate the king on the flop, but it is such a perfect bluffing spot, that I cannot resist calling and seeing what he might do.

On the turn, he lead, but the club was interesting.  But more than that, I just thought he was bluffing.  His betting just seemed like he wanted a fold.   I have no analytic reason to say that.  Probabily a bad play.  I'm right a lot, however.

Of course, the river came nicely, and let me take a stab, turning what very well might have been the best hand into a bluff.  It wouldn't shock me if he had JJ or TT, no clubs of course.  But, it was so cool how I'd played the hand.  My line, as it turned out, just happened to scream Ac.  All skill baby!  lol.  It's not as risky as it might look, since I can easily fold to a raise.

I wonder what would happen if I played the hand normally.  Remember, I am this guy who just got here and started firing every other hand.  PAT had been betting a lot, from the 5-6 hands I had observed.  It appeared to be his table.  

Image management is so important.  I want them to play their hands against me reasonably.  If they do, I can read them.  What do you think Phil Helmuth's rants are all about?  And first impressions really last.  I just don't want to play at a table where they are floating me light, and 3-betting me light and slow playing all of the time, just figuring I never have anything.

It's a sick, terrible hand, and looks like a brag.  But please give me some credit.  I know how to play queens in this spot.  I just chose not to do it for metagame purposes.

What's my image after this hand?  Well, I'm pretty scary to PAT.  He's not going to bluff me much.  Calling stations are the rock to his scissors.  The rest of the table saw a made flush on the river.  I'm stronger after this hand.  But if I had gotten lucky, and my surprising hand was way head of some other strong hand and I won a big pot, I'd have them all acting like pussycats - well, minus the cat part  Xylinx is the only cat allowed at the table.  lol

BTW, the dueces cracked videos are still amazing me.  Great stuff!

What I'm reading

http://www.amazon.com/Winning-Poker-Tournaments-Hand-Time/dp/0974150274/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1235539804&sr=1-1

I'm impressed.  It's not a particularly entertaining book.  The ego-less ness is amazing.  The hands are pretty boring.   Careful analysis, and pretty deep reads, and then we don't see if they were even right.  And that is really irrelevant, if you stop to think about it.  These guys could certainly pick hands that make them the hero if they wanted to, right?  Easy.

That's just one example of many.  Sometimes we lose the hand.  The point being against his possible range we were good, but against the specific hand, we weren't. Surely that is a big part of the "meta-lesson".  

A lot of the plays focus on spots where you are concerned that your play is too weak, but you take the weak line anyway.  Isn't that really the toughest thing to do?  I'm only half way through, it's not an easy read.  

I think I'm gonna be reading the "pearl jammer" section while I am playing WSOP events this year, as I think it will give me patience and determination  - deep stack, slow structure changes your decisions so much.  Putting in a whole first day just trying to survive should be fairly gruelling.

Any other good books?

No poker tonight for me.    I played bad yesterday.  I can (and did) try to rationalize it, but it is what it is.  If I just want to goof around I should just put some more money in, and have fun.  Grinding for nickels is still my quest.  We'll see how long I can take it.

(sorry for all the emails, guys, I'm still learning this blog thing.  I'll be more careful)

320 hands,  43/27/2.33 + 40BB

Dropped 2 buyins early, then cleaned up on the table.  Sick, sick poker.  I was begging them to call me, seriously and literally.  This all looks pretty sloppy, but it really wasn't.  The big hands I lost were while I was running bad, early.    The late stuff was controlled, I think.  When I was really wide open,  I had such control of the table, they really couldn't lay a glove on me.

Losers:

-81bbs. J8 vs KT.  We both got there.  1 buyin gone.

-40 bbs. ran into a set of dueces.  

-40bb.  3 bet AJo + cbet from sb, fold to reraise.  Looks like a move that ran into a hand.

-26bb.  2 barrel bluff.  Folded river.

Winners:

+91bbs - Pretty wild.  My bluff caught a pair of 9's.  lol.  98o vs K7.  He flopped a 7.  Goofy.

+83bbs - A7s vs QQ.  Flopped nut flush draw.  Got lucky.

+53bbs - hero call / A high.  He had 42o and called 2 big bets and tried to buff his way out. 

+35bbs - 33 vs AJo.  Set.  He turned a Jack and went nuts.  well, because of my image for sure.

+21bbs - AQo.   Bluffed the turn.

+13bbs - KTo.   I folded out the worst hand on the river.

I made 2 hero calls with A high, both times right.  I won't post the hands, since that would just be bragging.  The second one was a little funny.

He sez:  How can you call, a 2 beats you.

I say: Yes, you could be bluffing with the best hand, but you were bluffing.

What can I say.  I was on my game last night.  Too bad I didn't make any money.  Well, I did win my 2 buyins back, so that's something.

"Come On.  I'm raising 40% of my hands.  Fight Back! "  lol

LAG can be seriously fun sometimes.

I feel my comeupance coming. Pride goeth before the fall.

Here's my thought for the day.  

It's really fun to run over tables.  It's good for the ego, but I keep playing just for that reason.  There is no longer any easy money to be made.  I created a table of people waiting to trap me.  While it is hard to do, since their bets just screams MONSTER, all I am really playing for is coolers now.  I'm in the same spot as a TAG.  Swapping chips, hoping to be on the good side of a cooler.

I need to downshift!  Tighten up abruptly, and let my image earn me some money.  Can I be ego-free enough to do this?  Can I just release my greasy grip on the table, let someone else take control, and wait for a good spot and loose action?

These sessions often get out of hand.  This is where I start spewing.  I think it might be a very good idea to adjust down in these spots, even though I am having so much fun.  So, let's let that be the project for the week.  I certainly can shift from low to high.  Can I shift from high to low, without losing a big pot?  

Custom Club Xylinx Chip Design

I think they are beauties.  If only we could get our homegame to meet regular again...

Mixing Up Your Game

Not much poker today, I was just off my game.  I didn't feel it.

87 hands, +40BB  Stats: 18/15/5   - winning != playing well.

One hand, the old limp utg play:
Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8, 8
Hero calls $0.10, 7 folds, BB checks
Flop: ($0.25) 6, 3, K (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.30, 1 fold

If you see this (the table was very loose), you might be playing too tight-aggressive.

Getting out of the funk

I think that aggr factor might be a good indication when I am playing a bit tenative.  A high aggr ratio indicates I am leading alot, and therefore playing more exclusively  in position.  Ironically, when I am really playing aggressive, my factor goes down, because I am then playing more

hands out of position, and I am taking check-call, and check-raise type lines, so I am calling, as a tactic, not just calling.  And sometimes I am calling down to showdown with moderate hands with a read.  higher variance plays, which are really uber-aggressive, but they hurt your score.  Limp, reraise plays also hurt your score, but they are certainly not passive play.

It's a real puzzle to me why sometimes I just cannot get into gear.  I think a lot of it is that I am protecting my stack too much, wanting to book a win.  As a result, I am playing my basic game, TAG.  Since I am playing so few hands, and taking an aggressive line, I am mostly winning small pots early in the hand.   It's hard to get reads when you never see cards, and you don't get to play opponents both when they are strong and when they are weak.  So I feel like I am playing blind, and just hoping I can win the pot.

This got me thinking about how to open up your game, when you are not in a gambling mood.  If you open your game by expanding your ranges, that is playing small pairs with open raises, and playing hands like KT and A9 you are putting yourself in many ambiguous situations post-flop. Without good reads, these hands are very hard to play well, especially if you aren't willing to splash around a bit to get info.

So, I was thinking, when I seem to be veering into a tight pattern, meaning I am less willing to take on risk, perhaps the best hands to add to my range is total trash.  Open raise in MP with 7-4 for example (or suited connectors obviously).  Definitely play them like aces.  You'll usually win anyway as long as you time your bets, and be aware of your image.  I do this when playing LAG too.  I want to play at least one pot per orbit, so if I am getting trash, I'll just open raise whatever I happen to have whenever it seems like it's been a while since I've been involved.  But I'd rather do this with complete garbage, than hands like QT, because if I face resistance I have very easy decisions.  And of course, when you happen to hit a low flop, your opponents will think you missed.

Doyle calls it "My timeclock went off".  Here's another quick tip from Doyle.  If you take one down, and your opponent runs the clock down and folds, the very next hand is a great one to play.  Those bluffs seem to work way too often.  The mindset is:  "He wouldn't dare have a weak hand now, since he knows we're suspicious."  If you play the third hand in a row, however, expect loose action.  And if your image sucks, this doesn't work.

Food for thought.

The illusion of a bad beat.

The Donkey hit his runner gutshot and beat me.  Oh poor me.  Life sucks.  Why does the bad player always beat me?  Whaaaa.  Whaaa.

MP1 ($7.45)
Hero (MP2) ($10.30)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 10, 10
1 fold, MP1 calls $0.10, Hero bets $0.50, 4 folds, MP1 calls $0.40
Flop: ($1.15) 6, 8, 2 (2 players)
MP1 bets $0.10, Hero raises to $0.70, MP1 calls $0.60
Turn: ($2.55) 4 (2 players)
MP1 bets $0.40, Hero raises to $7.80, MP1 calls $5.85 (All-In)
River: ($15.05) 3 (2 players, 1 all-in)
Total pot: $15.05 | Rake: $0.70
Results:
MP1 had 5, A (straight, six high).
Hero mucked 10, 10 (one pair, tens).
Outcome: MP1 won $14.35

There it is, the latest boring bad beat post. Poor unlucky xylinx.

$%#!% how does he make that call?

Funny thing is, he had 40% equity. His price works out. It wasn't really a bad call.  And I could have done better if I played my cards better against his actual hand, but my play was really pretty reasonable given his range.

I played 60 hands with this guy.  I was playing 23/18, I was surprised to learn. I felt like I was playing tight, but I actually wasn't very tight at all. I had also 3-bet 9% of the time which is a little frisky.

My soap opera was that this guy was a calling station. Every time I raised, he called or raised me. Except the first hand I played, where I 3-bet his first min raise. The FIRST time I played a pot, I three bet him and he folded. Hasn't folded to me since, but I've folded to him several times. It appeared to be the balls thing.

His stats were 34/23/5. HM says he did call at a "very high" rate. Granted, he was making some really weak bets, so he wasn't really this aggressive. He was opening for min-bets a lot. Tended to probe small.

I made the move figuring he would call with an 8. That's what I thought. I was rooting for a call. Honest. I just figured this guy gave me no respect for some reason. I'm playing tight, he always plays with me. He must be one of those guys that think they're always being bluffed.

But he wasn't that at all. Against this guy, I turned my great hand into a bluff. He is never calling that bet without a very strong hand. No way. And I wasn't playing tight at all. So he was right to consider bluffs a distinct possibility.

Now, a lot of money was going in on the turn no matter the line. I don't think the river has all that much action, as we both fear a raise. So, there was significant, but not a huge amount of money difference, had I chosen a different line - as the cards lie.

Let's look at the numbers. There was 3.35 in the pot, he had to call 5.85 to win 14.35. So he was getting 2.5:1. What was my range? Well, he knows I might have a flush, but unlikely. Maybe he puts me on a naked over pair. He hopes I have a flush draw. He has 12 outs for sure, and 15 in nice spots. So he is a 2:1 dog. It's a good call.

How did I do? I have ton of equity. What is his range? Well, that one is tough. He bet, but that doesn't mean anything. His range is wide open. He could have a flush which would suck. He could have a gutshot which is folding. Otherwise he could have 2 pair. He could have an 8. Or a set. He doesn't have an overpair to my tens. And he will be bluffing a pretty high percentage. All the 2 pair and sets have worst flush draws. Against a set, I still have 9 outs. Two pair, I have 11 outs. Since I eliminated the overpairs, I must either have the best hand or the best draw. Two way hands are very cool.

So if he has an 8, I am a monster fav. Otherwise, I am never in great shape if he calls. I have lots of fold equity. but so does a normal raise. Plus, a raise might get an 8 to call which is great for me. Say I raise to 2.50. He calls. Pot is now 8.35 and he catches his straight. How much can he love it? His stack is now 3.75. I think he would try another blocker bet, maybe 1.00. I just call. So 2.75 less goes into the pot as the cards fell.

My problem with a normal line is his stack size. If he calls 2.50 (and my read was he would), he is left with 3.75. And the pot will be 8.35. Awkward. It'll be hard to fold if he pushes. That leaves a passive line, which seems just uber-weak with my monster. He still stacks me if a spade comes. It's a tough spot.

The push has some meta-game advantages. It looks just plain reckless. I'll get some free cards and passive play as a result. It will look like I shoved $8 into a $3 pot. Now, I don't look at it that way. I just see the 2.75 I might save. But I mean, I look dangerous. "To play this maniac, I'm committing my stack... Nah, jacks are just too weak." lol

Let's say I get 90% folds allin, and since I am usually not against the worst case scenario, let's give me an extra 10% win percentage for some weak "you can't bluff me" hands (like my read suggested was possible) and bad calls with naked draws.

EV = FE * 3.35 + 14.35*Fw - 14.35*Fl

= 0.9*3.35 + 14.35(60+10) 14.35 (40 - 10)

= 3 + 10 - 4.3 = 8.70 - My equity.

14.35 - 8.70 = 5.65 - His equity.

8.70 - 5.65 = 3.05 - My advantage.

Flush over flush is worth 2.75 * .20 = .66.  Straight is worth 1.00 * 0.9 = 9 cents.

So 3.05 - (2.75 + .75) =  -0.50  +/-

So my play loses me 5 BBs every time I make it.  That's just a cbet that gets raised!  Not a very big mistake.  So my play was not very bad either.  Not ideal, but not terrible.  And since these situations are so rare, even if my play really sucks, it won't cost me those 5BB very often.  I guess I still like the push.   But only when I am sure his range is lacking big pairs.

The illusion of a bad beat.  The illusion of bad play.  Actually, it's just kinda a cooler and our decisions and the draw don't really matter all that much.  Certainly not enough to train yourself to play too cautiously with hands of this type, which really costs us a lot of missed equity!  "Embrace volatility" is actually good advice, even in this gross case.  As someone that tends to choose safety over thin edges, this hand should not make me more likely to be cautious.  

So no need to tilt about bad beats. No reason to obsess about bad play. It's just poker.

I played 71 hands and lost 53 BBs, and quit because I was feeling tilty. Good boy, Xylinx. I won 3 big pots, lost one other 20BB pot, all pretty routine.

The really cool thing about losing this hand is: had I won, I just would have caulked it up to expert play. I never would have discovered this rather cool fact: It just doesn't matter.

I run goot

Last night I played 184 hands NL cash.  I won 291 BBs.  My stats were 34/21/2.3.  A little bit looser than I'd like to see, my target is more like 17/15/3.  I played 2 sessions, and pretty much tripled up in both, and was certainly dominating.  I thought I was playing well.  I see one bad hand, and I don't remember it.  But I remember the villain, so I think I know what I was up to.  

He was a short stacker, and he was pretty good at it.  I doubled him up, but I stacked him once, so I think it is a wash.  In the loser, I had KQs and he had KK.  In the winner I happened to have the same hand, and he had jacks and I hit the flop.  Short stackers are so hard to play against, you pretty much have to make your decision pre-flop.   But I wasn't allin preflop, and should have been able to easily get off my hand post flop when I missed, so it just looks like a mistake to me. -46BB We were chatting a lot to, and I really enjoyed playing with him.  But this was definitely spew, it was after midnight.  I see overall I beat him out of 20BB in 51 hands. Might want to rethink KQs against shorties.

Only 4 losers over 10BBs, but 3 after midnight, altho those others don't look too spewy. 

Hands:

My biggest winner was A9o vs KK with a 9J9 board.  Just a cooler. +97BB.

22 vs JJ and I flopped a boat was good for +75BB.

AJ in a 5 way raised pot!  It just plays weird.  I apparently have tilted the table. +51

KQs vs JJ +23.  vs different shorty. Flop AQ8, shorty shoves.  I think this is ok.

Nothing else over 20BB.

Sessions:

I shut down the game in the first session.  They just all ran away.  I was a bit maniacal. ;)

I had a really good read on everyone.  They were loose passive typical players.  I'll post that weird hand as an example. cashed ~$25.  The interesting thing about this session is that I very carefully chose the table, playing random poker tight at a donk table while I waited half an hour for a seat.  The stats were like 25pf $2.00 which is semi-loose aggressive at these stakes.  My style works better against tighter, and more aggressive players than typical.  

Second session was longer, as I was intentionally trying to not look like such a bully.  fun table.  I sure wish more people would chat it up.  Maybe I should try more to start conversations.  Cashes $25, down from $32.

3 interesting hands:

This one, I thought I played really well.  The villain was the shorty that won the biggest pot off of me.  My read was he was a very decent player.  He was trying to play pots with me and was calling a lot of my preflop raises.  he would push a lot post, so he was tough, but he folded a lot too.

Hero (SB) ($25.75)
UTG+1 ($6)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 6, A
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.10, 5 folds, Hero bets $0.40, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.30
Flop: ($0.90) 5, 8, 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks
Turn: ($0.90) A (2 players)
Hero bets $0.60, UTG+1 calls $0.60
River: ($2.10) J (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50

Results:
Hero had 6, A (one pair, Aces).
UTG+1 had A, 3 (one pair, Aces).
Outcome: Hero won $2.95

I considered folding the river, but when replaying the hand in my mind, I felt his most likely holdings were really restricted.  I put him on a weak ace 9 or lower, and not 8, 5 or 2.  I'm pretty certain he would raise the turn with any stronger ace, or 2 pair against me.  And I'm pretty sure he folds without an ace, when I bet it.  So the 9,7 beats me, and the 3,4 I win, 6 we chop.  So given I was getting 5:1 for my call, folding would be really bad.   Factor in a few bluff possibilities which are certainly possible given that I checked the river, and I really am a favorite against his range.

I say he would raise me because we had a lot of history, and I had often called his pushes relatively thin, just because of stack sizes.  He just wasn't slowplaying much.  Of course he had a bit more money here, so who knows.  Once you focus on your opponent's hand, NLHE becomes a lot easier.

Here's that weird hand:

Button ($4.70)
Hero (SB) ($9.65)
BB ($10.80)
UTG ($6.20)
UTG+1 ($2.10)
MP1 ($5.60)
MP2 ($10.80)
CO ($8.30)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, J
UTG calls $0.10, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.10, 1 fold, CO calls $0.10, Button calls $0.10, Hero bets $0.40, 1 fold, UTG calls $0.30, MP1 calls $0.30, CO calls $0.30, Button calls $0.30

Flop: ($2.10) 7, 7, 6 (5 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, CO checks, Button checks

Turn: ($2.10) 2 (5 players)
Hero bets $1, 2 folds, CO calls $1, Button calls $1

River: ($5.10) A (3 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $0.90, Button calls $0.90, Hero calls $0.90

Total pot: $7.80 | Rake: $0.35

CO had 98o for an oesd he had to bluff, Button had A9s for a flush draw. I'm lucky I got out alive. These schoolers. Maybe my turn bluff is a little off, but turns out I was protecting the best hand. lol.

CO (t3870)
SB (t2325)
BB (t2685)
Hero (UTG) (t2815)
UTG+1 (t2835)
MP1 (t2925)
MP2 (t3075)
Hero's M: 46.92
Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9, 9
Hero bets t160, 2 folds, MP2 calls t160, 1 fold, CO calls t160, 3 folds

Flop: (t540) 3, 3, J (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets t400, 1 fold, Hero raises to t1160, MP2 calls t760

Turn: (t2860) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets t1495 (All-In), MP2 calls t1495

River: (t5850) K (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: t5850
Results:
Hero had 9, 9 (two pair, nines and threes).
MP2 had J, 8 (two pair, Jacks and threes).

I played this just terrible, turning my 99 into a bluff.  Villain just plain outplayed me.  He was an amazing player.  He would minraise open every single pot, and call raises.  He would min-raise any small raises too.  It's an interesting strategy.    It's pretty cheap to do, and I have no idea how to defend against it.  This was in the real early going when everyone is playing really tight, and if you used that to win a couple of stacks, and then settle down, it could be very effective.  It sure shut the table down (and me too).  I honestly almost folded the 99, just because I thought he would put me in tough spots too often.  He definitely scared me.  All attention was on him.  I guess 99 utg really is a little loose, but it was the 2nd pot I had played, and I want to test him and then just apparently lost my mind.

I might give the strategy a try.  If I see it again, I think I'll just watch the show and try not to tilt.

The good news is that I recognized the problem immediately, and corrected, and these fine cash games were the result.  note my agg factor is lower than usual, and this is part of the reason.  There was a time when I would have said something like "who calls raises with J8, what a donk!"  Playing against the line I took, his top pair no kicker pretty much had to be the nuts.  Live and Learn.

A clever ploy against a very narrow hand range.

Here's an interesting hand I believe I played well.

Villian is TAG 9/5/7 over 93 hands.  I am 19/15/3.3  

Here's my read: 

I think he might think I am bluffing in obvious bluffing spots a bit too much (as the hands happened to play out between us).  In other words, his bets are not necessarily hand strength.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP1 ($20.30)
MP2 ($2.25)
MP3 ($3.55)
CO ($4.95)
Button ($10.25)
SB ($9.05)
Hero (BB) ($19.55)
UTG ($11.05)
UTG+1 ($3.75)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4, 9
UTG calls $0.10, 6 folds, SB calls $0.05, Hero bets $0.40, UTG calls $0.30, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.90) 9, Q, 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.90, Hero calls $0.90

Turn: ($2.70) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $2, Hero raises to $4.70, 1 fold

Total pot: $6.70 | Rake: $0.30

Why am I playing 94s against a TAG out of position?  Well here are my thoughts:

He limped utg! 9% preflop, and 7 aggression factor!  That's not his usual line. I think he has a small pair something like 90% of the time. He might have AA/KK, and just realize that as tight as he is playing, most players are simply not going to bother calling his EP raises, so he could be  planning a limp/reraise.  If I raise he can spring his trap.  Since he doesn't he just has to have a small pocket pair.   

Playing when I KNOW what he has allows me to play perfectly against him.

 

Of course on the flop I got lucky.  Cool.  Not too important though to the play of the hand. I pick up a bluff catcher that I cannot imagine I would ever use.  He either has a set, or he will have to fold.  Black and White.  His bet doesn't change his range at all.  He would bluff this board after I show weakness very frequently.  He has a made hand, so in his mind he could even have the best hand.  I have a 9, so there is just one set of nines left.

All I really fear is pocket 3s.  He simply cannot have a Queen in his hand.

Notice that I check-call.  I like to do this on bluff boards sometimes.  And since I am bluffing myself (likely with the best hand coincidentially) I don't want to take the obvious bluff line.  Check-calling says I have something.  Leading says nothing.  Another reason for this is I do fire a lot of C-Bets, so I want to balance my play a little when I get a good spot.  Show them a new look, keep them guessing.

It's really all about my percieved ranges.  When I am bluffing, I want to make plays that will constrict my percieved range.  When I am value betting, I want to make plays that leave me with a very wide range so he will make mistakes against me. A check-call says I have a pair or a draw. 

 

I don't like the turn card one bit.  3 more hands beat me. On the turn, my check-raise shows so much strength.  It makes playing easier.  I could lead and maybe show down a winner, but it would hurt my image if anyone is paying attention.   And if he calls, I have no idea how to play the river.  The check-raise was chosen so that I could tell a stubborn pair from a set.

Also notice the stack sizes.  If I lead, and he calls, he is not pot committed.  But with the check/raise, I am forcing him to commit to the pot.  It's a lot scarier for him and forces him to play his hand face up.  If he calls that my nines-up are never going to be good.

Why do I think this is a clever play?  Well, with a bit of hand reading and a pretty fancy line, I was able to extract 33 BBs from a TAG that thought he was set mining!  Ya gotta chuckle at that.  

It's a higher variance play, but understand that I will never put another nickle in the pot under any circumstances.  I am willing to take a calculated risk because I have so much specific information, and he is flying blind.  I actually think it is safer playing this way.  If I played it conventually, I would be the one flying blind, especially after spiking the 9.  His range still has big pairs, and sets, and I am out of position.  I would tend to just fold knowing I probabily had the best hand just because it is too difficult to play.