How to Bust out of a Tournament

Poker has been hard over the last week.  Running really bad.

I played 300 hands or so, and won 150BBs.  

To win money, I gotta do stuff like bluff someone off pocket Queens.  ;)

PokerStars Game #26113993913:  Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10) - 2009/03/18 21:58:28 ET

Table 'Lemaitre II' 6-max Seat #2 is the button

Seat 1: zethdconan ($18.90 in chips) 

Seat 2: nickskid ($11.40 in chips) 

Seat 3: MrDonktard2u ($11.10 in chips) 

Seat 4: d4ny0 ($1.55 in chips) 

Seat 5: Boilers425 ($0.75 in chips) 

Seat 6: Xylinx ($14.80 in chips) 

MrDonktard2u: posts small blind $0.05

d4ny0: posts big blind $0.10

*** HOLE CARDS ***

Dealt to Xylinx [Jh Jd]

Boilers425: calls $0.10

Xylinx: raises $0.30 to $0.40

zethdconan: raises $0.80 to $1.20

nickskid: folds 

MrDonktard2u: folds 

d4ny0: folds 

Boilers425: folds 

Xylinx: calls $0.80

*** FLOP *** [3c 3s 7c]

Xylinx: checks 

zethdconan: bets $1.70

Xylinx: raises $2.30 to $4

zethdconan: calls $2.30

*** TURN *** [3c 3s 7c] [Ad]

Xylinx: bets $4.20

zethdconan: folds 

Uncalled bet ($4.20) returned to Xylinx

Xylinx collected $10.15 from pot

*** SUMMARY ***

Total pot $10.65 | Rake $0.50 

Board [3c 3s 7c Ad]

Seat 1: zethdconan folded on the Turn

Seat 2: nickskid (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Seat 3: MrDonktard2u (small blind) folded before Flop

Seat 4: d4ny0 (big blind) folded before Flop

Seat 5: Boilers425 folded before Flop

Seat 6: Xylinx collected ($10.15)

I just seem to run bad for such long periods.  Probabily only me. ;)

So back to deep tournament strategy.

Fold Equity is the Nuts, but Better

Just watch it happen, the next tournament you play.  Most people go broke in one of three ways.  They either catch the bad side of a cold deck, they bluff off their stack, or they make terrible bets with decent hands, but with no fold equity.  So how do we not do those things, and instead, survive to get deep?

1)  Cold decks may be unavoidable, but by trying to play smaller pots we are in better shape than the "all-in baby" crowd.  Try to get the big bets in later in the hand as much as possible.

2) Well let's just not bluff all-in at all on the first day.  Bluff smaller on early streets, and give up if you seem to be against something.

3)  So this one is the big one.  We cannot control 1) Luck and we can control 2) idiocy easily.  But I see this mistake over and over again in every tourney.  Making bets with good hands, but no fold equity is a bad play.  We lose much of our edge.  It is just gambling.    The earlier it is done in the hand, the bigger mistake it is.

If you re-raise and the effective raise isn't much more than the pot, you are laying 2:1 odds.  You are seldom a 2:1 favorite, on average, against a reasonable range of hands your opponents could hold.  So this bet prices them in, and will fold only complete bluffs  (even some of those will call).  

Be sure to calculate the pot correctly, as you must add in your call of the raise first.

Example:

The pot is 500 on the flop.  The SB with 1500 back bets $400.  You have top pair, good kicker.

So the pot is now 500 + 400 + 400 (your call) = 1300, and your opponent has 1100 left.  Raise only if you want a call.  You do not want a call if his stack is 1/3 of yours or more.  So with less than 4500 chips, this is a fold  (above that, maybe we can afford to gamble).

Your hand against his range is not very far ahead with 2 cards to come.  You could be beat, and if you are ahead, he has outs.  If we assume that we are 60% favorite on average, this small edge is well compensated for by the pot odds.  This small edge is nothing compared to making raises that have fold equity.  Give it up, live to find spots where your edge is stronger.

Consider when we are the short stack.  Then we just need to know our M.  If our M is 5 or less, we want to open raise allin.  Never call raises or reraise with that stack without monsters.  Here's why.

Example:  

Blinds 100/200 ante 25: initial pot = 525

Our stack is 2600 (M=5)  We hold 88.

EP opens for 600.  The pot is 525 + 600 + 600 = 1725.  Our stack is 2000.  We have no fold equity against a decent stack.  It would be best to wait for a better spot.  Double our stack, and it becomes an easy push, because the sum of our fold equity, plus the chance we win the pot if he calls is very positive.  Without any fold equity, it is really a coin-flip against a reasonable range of hands.  Look at that - all of our value in the raise is pretty much the fold equity!

Don't do it.  Don't force your opponent to call you.  Don't give up half the value of your raise.  Never re-raise allin for about the pot.

Tilt big time

Well, blew off 308 bbs in 79 hands.  stats were 30/20/1 at six-max tables.

I lost one sick bad beat, but played pretty bad in a bunch of other hands.  Certainly the cards we not going my way at all, but I just kept pushing small edges, and was consistantly wrong.  Not drunken tilt.  Just "can't win a pot" tilt.

-100 get it in with the nuts against KK that rivered the flush.

-45  bluffed all his chips on a 3 barrel bluff against a station with top pair jacks, no kicker.  I so knew better.

-38  my sixes vs his eights on a 56KKQ board.  I knew he didn't have much, but he had enough.

-33  my top pair queens, vs A4 for 2 pair, on a 4QT flop, turn ace.

-21  called down middle pair sixes into a passive 2 pair.

-14  pocket sixes against a 20bb shorty.

Not a single win over 3 bbs.

lost 14 pots, won the blinds 11 times.  I did not win even the blinds until hand 30.

Brutal.

Won 50 bbs back at the 9max tables.  For some reason, my aces didn't get drawn out on.  Pokerstars is fixed.

Deep Stack Tournaments

As we approach time for WSOP 2009, I thought we might want to talk a bit about strategy for playing these games.  So I thought I would throw out some ideas.  I am not claiming to be an expert, but I think I have a pretty flawless record on cashing in these kinds of tourney structures, and a lot of final tables to boot, so I am not a complete imbecile.

Tight is Right.

These tourneys are multi-day affairs.  You are very deep and the blinds raise slowly.  There is a ton of play.  So the goal for day one is absolutely to survive, and I see no reason why anyone should have to bust the first day.  If you can double up twice in 10 hours of poker, you will be strong going into day 2.  That's all you need, 2 good spots in 10 hours of play.  So you can, and should, be very selective.

You do not want to play for your stack with small edges.  By a small edge, I mean having KK against QQ preflop.  How can I say that?  Well, in this best of all possible preflop outcomes, you are ONLY a 4:1 favorite.  

Here's a table from "Little Green Book".  It shows the chance of survival, when getting allin as a 4:1 favorite, per trial.

1-  81.26%

2-  66.02%

3-  53.65%

4-  43.59%

5-  35.42%

6-  28.78%

7-  23.39%

In other words, if you play master poker and get it in 4 times when you have your opponent crushed, you are a small luckbox to win all 4!   Coin flips, 60/40's allins on day one are just silly.  Don't do it.

So, what? Fold kings preflop?  Of course not.  Just try to keep the pot reasonable.  You want to raise, both for value and to get heads up.  But play the hand post flop if possible, and play carefully.  In the fast tourneys we usually play, this logic would be madness, but with 2 hour blinds and deep stacks, it is simply correct - and you have a real edge over opponents that don't understand this.

So am I suggesting just playing super weak-tight?  Well, kinda, but only in pots that are looking to get big and are showdown bound.  Pre-flop and on the flop, the style doesn't really matter that much.  LAG and TAG are both profitable and just fine.  Try to win small pots with appropriate aggression, or small showdown pots -- unless you have something pretty close to the nuts.  I want to be a BIG favorite against my opponents range of value hands when I call off my stack.  Save the small edges for when losing the pot will not cripple you -- against short stacks.

Is this exploitable.  You bet!  But they have to risk a lot to take advantage, and you just are not playing that many pots.  And, of course your tight image is something you can exploit to induce bluffs, and to bluff yourself, so it works out.    

This is the most important idea, and the mindset required to go deep in these tourneys.  It is a boring, frustrating, tiring and often humilating way to play, but it is this disipline which will give you a chance to play later when the blinds are big and you have enough chips.   This is how you earn the right to play fun, late game tournament poker.

Please comment.  To be continued.

-27BB 143 hands 23/15/2.8  Playing well again.

-20 AQs vs AA - shortstack 3 bet me.  That's a call, I think.  Folding AJo.

-16 Check called down min bets with mid pair, against a flopped 2 pair (!)  Optional for sure.

+22 straight vs flopped set.  He called me names, and still wouldn't fight back.  (17/6 player)

won 17, lost 6 small pots.  My AA,AA and KK hands won the blinds, of course.

Seems to me like the games have changed a bit.  These used to be very aggressive stakes.  Now the short stackers have invaded, and you see a lot of limping and min betting.  I think it is more the size of my bets and my post flop relentlessness which is keeping them out of my pots.  They just want to see small pots shown down a lot, I guess.  So how do I adjust?

If I stop betting so much, I price them into their weak draws.  I make them accidentally play correctly.  I think I need to keep betting, really.

I guess I need to call more.  I let them price me into my weak draws, and just hope to win a big pot when I hit.  Is that poker?

Played some 6-max.

+76 over 30 hands.  30/23/6.5  - I did get a couple of hands.

Lot's more interesting.  Maybe focus on 6max a bit more.  They are adapting much quicker.  

+56 - obviously had him outkicked with my AJ on a 8AQA7 board.  He stacked off with A6.

Lots of loose calls!  

Dulldrums

I haven't been playing particularly well the last couple of days.  I am booking small wins, playing short sessions.  I am playing rather tight and predictable.  I have stopped drinking, which is likely why, no liquid courage.

Over the last fews days I played 7 short sessions:

+32BBs  42 hands 19/14/3

+70BBs  81 hands 22/14/2.2

-11BBs   71 hands 15/9/2.2

-26BBs  16 hands 18/6

+23BBs  53 hands 11/7.5/10

+34BBs  41 hands 17/12/8

+7BBs    51 hands 10/8/4.0

I wish I could combine stats in HM.  

I just don't get any action, which is why all the small wins.  They just won't call my turn bets.  That means I am too tight.  It will be interesting to see if I can get that maniac attitude without chemicals.

Try out Neo-Cube - look on you tube!  Pretty cool toy!

+32 over 42 hands.  19/14/4.  Haven't been wanting to play much lately.  

Watching WSOPE - very nice broadcast.  Also watching dueces cracked videos.

Here's the hand that bothered me.

Seat 3: shaneor ($11.70 in chips) 

Seat 8: Xylinx ($12.80 in chips) 

tugjd: posts small blind $0.05

shaneor: posts big blind $0.10

*** HOLE CARDS ***

Dealt to Xylinx [7d Qh]

SuprFloydATL: folds 

bigplay6666: folds 

kikaz1976: folds 

glaugh: folds 

Xylinx: raises $0.30 to $0.40

fagarbal: folds 

tugjd: folds 

shaneor: calls $0.30

*** FLOP *** [Tc Kd Ks]

shaneor: checks 

Xylinx: bets $0.60

shaneor: raises $0.60 to $1.20

Xylinx: folds 

Uncalled bet ($0.60) returned to shaneor

shaneor collected $1.95 from pot

shaneor is sitting out

shaneor: doesn't show hand 

*** SUMMARY ***

Total pot $2.05 | Rake $0.10 

I think this is a terrible play on his part.  And the last thing I should have done is fold.  I knew it at the time, but I just didn't have enough experience with him to be sure he knew what he was doing.  If I thought he had some poker experience, I would have played this hand and won it.

Here's the problem with his play.  First off, notice I am playing pretty tight.  I am the tightest active player at the table.   His stats were a fishy 32/5/2 but only over 21 hands.  So what is my range, raising from the cutoff?   Well, it will be hands that are all over this board, like AK, KQ, AQ and lots of pairs which will also like this board.

What is his range when check-raising this flop?  There's the problem, there is no reasonable hand he does this for value with.  Especially a min-raise.  Made hands will want to protect against the very likely chance I have a draw.  If he has a King, why would he check-raise?  A ten or a smaller pocket pair wouldn't check-raise either.  Both his monsters and his made hands are going to check-call.  Please tell me what hand he could have, I can see nothing.  Of course, a terrified king makes sense for a new player, but otherwise, his line makes no sense.

His play will tend to fold only my bluffs, hands he probabily beats already.  Even a bluff is better off check-calling the flop.  Had he called, I would have given up at the first possible occasion.  Of course, I did happen to have one of my occassional stone bluffs, so I did fold.  But I shouldn't have, and usually wouldn't.  I would usually put him on a bluff, and take it away from him.

Look how scary it is if I call his check-raise.  All I have to do is bet or raise one more time, and he is very likely folding without pretty close to the nuts.  No need for me to make some wild 3-bet here.  A call shows much more strength.

The merit to my play is that I want weak players to think they can bluff me at will.  I want them to think I cannot read hands, so the next time they back themselves into a corner, they will try to bet their way out, and I can win a big pot.  Of course, this guy high-tailed it right after this hand, didn't even play out his free hands for the orbit.  Oh, well.  He verified my read, I think.

28/15/3  -90bbs  over 71 hands.

J7 vs JT - a bit of a cooler. -57

K5 vs KJ - a tossup.   -33

AJ vs AK - Got away cheap. -22

Only 1 winner over 10.

QQ vs ??  +21  2 callers to my three-bet.  Bet big on the flop, into a drawy board.

Mostly not much going on.

Tilted, me thinks, towards the end, maybe.  Not spew, just got held over a bit.

My play early was good, just very weak tables, nobody would play with me.

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Xylinx [Js 7h]
blag19 has timed out
blag19: folds
blag19 is sitting out
ibe187: folds
PecanGrower: calls $0.10
KingsoverQ's: folds
stoxpeon: folds
blag19 has returned
Xylinx: raises $0.40 to $0.50
jsizzle77: folds
moonstorm1: folds
PecanGrower: calls $0.40
*** FLOP *** [2s Tc 7d]
PecanGrower: checks
Xylinx: bets $0.60
PecanGrower: calls $0.60
*** TURN *** [2s Tc 7d] [Jc]
PecanGrower: checks
Xylinx: bets $1.80
PecanGrower: calls $1.80
*** RIVER *** [2s Tc 7d Jc] [8s]
PecanGrower: bets $2.85
Xylinx: calls $2.85
*** SHOW DOWN ***
PecanGrower: shows [Th Jh] (two pair, Jacks and Tens)
Xylinx: mucks hand
PecanGrower collected $11.10 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $11.65 | Rake $0.55
Board [2s Tc 7d Jc 8s]
Seat 2: jsizzle77 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: moonstorm1 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: blag19 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: ibe187 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: PecanGrower showed [Th Jh] and won ($11.10) with two pair, Jacks and Tens
Seat 7: KingsoverQ's folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: stoxpeon folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: Xylinx (button) mucked [Js 7h]

Should have just folded the river.  Kinda a cooler, but bad play too.  Almost tossed it.  Note, his river bet was not really a value bet.  More a blocker, really.  He was a good player though.  He beat me a pot just before this.

Seat 1: Xylinx ($11.05 in chips) 

Seat 5: CDROM8 ($11.65 in chips) 

*** HOLE CARDS ***

Dealt to Xylinx [Kc 5c]

koster00008: folds 

Riverside Dr: folds 

Xylinx: raises $0.30 to $0.40

Fartovii: folds 

CaptainCarp: folds 

blazkuh: folds 

CDROM8: calls $0.35

jimmychauv: folds 

*** FLOP *** [4d Ks 9h]

CDROM8: bets $0.20

Xylinx: raises $0.70 to $0.90

CDROM8: calls $0.70

*** TURN *** [4d Ks 9h] [8s]

CDROM8: bets $0.80

Xylinx: calls $0.80

*** RIVER *** [4d Ks 9h 8s] [8d]

CDROM8: bets $1.50

Xylinx: calls $1.50

*** SHOW DOWN ***

CDROM8: shows [Kh Js] (two pair, Kings and Eights)

Xylinx: mucks hand 

CDROM8 collected $6.95 from pot

*** SUMMARY ***

Total pot $7.30 | Rake $0.35 

Board [4d Ks 9h 8s 8d]

Seat 1: Xylinx mucked [Kc 5c]

Seat 2: Fartovii folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Seat 3: CaptainCarp folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Seat 4: blazkuh (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Seat 5: CDROM8 (small blind) showed [Kh Js] and won ($6.95) with two pair, Kings and Eights

Seat 6: jimmychauv (big blind) folded before Flop

Seat 7: koster00008 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Seat 8: Riverside Dr folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Personally, I think he played it poorly.  He was bluffing on the river, I had a dandy bluff catcher.  What his bluff could fold that he couldn't beat is unclear to me.  KQ, maybe...  AK is not folding.  I think this is a call most of the time.   If it was a value bet, well...  It's an interesting play.  He left right after the hand.

The good news is I quit playing.  Not my night, maybe.  I'm sure I am not on top of my game.

My thought for today.  Gavin kinda blew it on wpt.  His HU gameplay would have worked.  Just don't try to bluff this guy!  presto baby, all in!  lol

Too bad, really.  He was playing soooo good.  That call against Kathy was pretty sick.  He was wrong, kinda.  Not a big favorite, but still, he read Kathy dead on.