How to Bust out of a Tournament

Poker has been hard over the last week.  Running really bad.

I played 300 hands or so, and won 150BBs.  

To win money, I gotta do stuff like bluff someone off pocket Queens.  ;)

PokerStars Game #26113993913:  Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10) - 2009/03/18 21:58:28 ET

Table 'Lemaitre II' 6-max Seat #2 is the button

Seat 1: zethdconan ($18.90 in chips) 

Seat 2: nickskid ($11.40 in chips) 

Seat 3: MrDonktard2u ($11.10 in chips) 

Seat 4: d4ny0 ($1.55 in chips) 

Seat 5: Boilers425 ($0.75 in chips) 

Seat 6: Xylinx ($14.80 in chips) 

MrDonktard2u: posts small blind $0.05

d4ny0: posts big blind $0.10

*** HOLE CARDS ***

Dealt to Xylinx [Jh Jd]

Boilers425: calls $0.10

Xylinx: raises $0.30 to $0.40

zethdconan: raises $0.80 to $1.20

nickskid: folds 

MrDonktard2u: folds 

d4ny0: folds 

Boilers425: folds 

Xylinx: calls $0.80

*** FLOP *** [3c 3s 7c]

Xylinx: checks 

zethdconan: bets $1.70

Xylinx: raises $2.30 to $4

zethdconan: calls $2.30

*** TURN *** [3c 3s 7c] [Ad]

Xylinx: bets $4.20

zethdconan: folds 

Uncalled bet ($4.20) returned to Xylinx

Xylinx collected $10.15 from pot

*** SUMMARY ***

Total pot $10.65 | Rake $0.50 

Board [3c 3s 7c Ad]

Seat 1: zethdconan folded on the Turn

Seat 2: nickskid (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Seat 3: MrDonktard2u (small blind) folded before Flop

Seat 4: d4ny0 (big blind) folded before Flop

Seat 5: Boilers425 folded before Flop

Seat 6: Xylinx collected ($10.15)

I just seem to run bad for such long periods.  Probabily only me. ;)

So back to deep tournament strategy.

Fold Equity is the Nuts, but Better

Just watch it happen, the next tournament you play.  Most people go broke in one of three ways.  They either catch the bad side of a cold deck, they bluff off their stack, or they make terrible bets with decent hands, but with no fold equity.  So how do we not do those things, and instead, survive to get deep?

1)  Cold decks may be unavoidable, but by trying to play smaller pots we are in better shape than the "all-in baby" crowd.  Try to get the big bets in later in the hand as much as possible.

2) Well let's just not bluff all-in at all on the first day.  Bluff smaller on early streets, and give up if you seem to be against something.

3)  So this one is the big one.  We cannot control 1) Luck and we can control 2) idiocy easily.  But I see this mistake over and over again in every tourney.  Making bets with good hands, but no fold equity is a bad play.  We lose much of our edge.  It is just gambling.    The earlier it is done in the hand, the bigger mistake it is.

If you re-raise and the effective raise isn't much more than the pot, you are laying 2:1 odds.  You are seldom a 2:1 favorite, on average, against a reasonable range of hands your opponents could hold.  So this bet prices them in, and will fold only complete bluffs  (even some of those will call).  

Be sure to calculate the pot correctly, as you must add in your call of the raise first.

Example:

The pot is 500 on the flop.  The SB with 1500 back bets $400.  You have top pair, good kicker.

So the pot is now 500 + 400 + 400 (your call) = 1300, and your opponent has 1100 left.  Raise only if you want a call.  You do not want a call if his stack is 1/3 of yours or more.  So with less than 4500 chips, this is a fold  (above that, maybe we can afford to gamble).

Your hand against his range is not very far ahead with 2 cards to come.  You could be beat, and if you are ahead, he has outs.  If we assume that we are 60% favorite on average, this small edge is well compensated for by the pot odds.  This small edge is nothing compared to making raises that have fold equity.  Give it up, live to find spots where your edge is stronger.

Consider when we are the short stack.  Then we just need to know our M.  If our M is 5 or less, we want to open raise allin.  Never call raises or reraise with that stack without monsters.  Here's why.

Example:  

Blinds 100/200 ante 25: initial pot = 525

Our stack is 2600 (M=5)  We hold 88.

EP opens for 600.  The pot is 525 + 600 + 600 = 1725.  Our stack is 2000.  We have no fold equity against a decent stack.  It would be best to wait for a better spot.  Double our stack, and it becomes an easy push, because the sum of our fold equity, plus the chance we win the pot if he calls is very positive.  Without any fold equity, it is really a coin-flip against a reasonable range of hands.  Look at that - all of our value in the raise is pretty much the fold equity!

Don't do it.  Don't force your opponent to call you.  Don't give up half the value of your raise.  Never re-raise allin for about the pot.