Deep Stack Tournaments

As we approach time for WSOP 2009, I thought we might want to talk a bit about strategy for playing these games.  So I thought I would throw out some ideas.  I am not claiming to be an expert, but I think I have a pretty flawless record on cashing in these kinds of tourney structures, and a lot of final tables to boot, so I am not a complete imbecile.

Tight is Right.

These tourneys are multi-day affairs.  You are very deep and the blinds raise slowly.  There is a ton of play.  So the goal for day one is absolutely to survive, and I see no reason why anyone should have to bust the first day.  If you can double up twice in 10 hours of poker, you will be strong going into day 2.  That's all you need, 2 good spots in 10 hours of play.  So you can, and should, be very selective.

You do not want to play for your stack with small edges.  By a small edge, I mean having KK against QQ preflop.  How can I say that?  Well, in this best of all possible preflop outcomes, you are ONLY a 4:1 favorite.  

Here's a table from "Little Green Book".  It shows the chance of survival, when getting allin as a 4:1 favorite, per trial.

1-  81.26%

2-  66.02%

3-  53.65%

4-  43.59%

5-  35.42%

6-  28.78%

7-  23.39%

In other words, if you play master poker and get it in 4 times when you have your opponent crushed, you are a small luckbox to win all 4!   Coin flips, 60/40's allins on day one are just silly.  Don't do it.

So, what? Fold kings preflop?  Of course not.  Just try to keep the pot reasonable.  You want to raise, both for value and to get heads up.  But play the hand post flop if possible, and play carefully.  In the fast tourneys we usually play, this logic would be madness, but with 2 hour blinds and deep stacks, it is simply correct - and you have a real edge over opponents that don't understand this.

So am I suggesting just playing super weak-tight?  Well, kinda, but only in pots that are looking to get big and are showdown bound.  Pre-flop and on the flop, the style doesn't really matter that much.  LAG and TAG are both profitable and just fine.  Try to win small pots with appropriate aggression, or small showdown pots -- unless you have something pretty close to the nuts.  I want to be a BIG favorite against my opponents range of value hands when I call off my stack.  Save the small edges for when losing the pot will not cripple you -- against short stacks.

Is this exploitable.  You bet!  But they have to risk a lot to take advantage, and you just are not playing that many pots.  And, of course your tight image is something you can exploit to induce bluffs, and to bluff yourself, so it works out.    

This is the most important idea, and the mindset required to go deep in these tourneys.  It is a boring, frustrating, tiring and often humilating way to play, but it is this disipline which will give you a chance to play later when the blinds are big and you have enough chips.   This is how you earn the right to play fun, late game tournament poker.

Please comment.  To be continued.